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And everyone is making guesses about which show will succeed and which show will fall on it's ass. Now I usually don't make (public) guesses, because more often then not it's hard for me to guess about a show that isn't to my taste, but even when the show is to my taste I probably more often then not guess wrongly. But since I'm still bored today, and waiting for a (*crosses fingers*) call to go to work - though admittedly the later in the day it gets it seems less and less likely I'm going to get that call.
(On the other hand, while I was typing this up I got another interview call with another place tomorrow. So, if that one don't call maybe this new one will. Strange really, for damn near three months I couldn't even get one damn call - I kept thinking maybe my phone was broken or that for some reason my application(s)/resume was bad/wrong. Seriously, despite how bad it would look/seem I was starting to consider calling some of the places I'd applied too and just asking what about my application/resume turned them off so badly (so I could fix it on future ones), but now in less then a week I've gotten three interview calls.)

For example, Ringer, while it's on the CW I didn't expect it to grab a 2.0 (A18-49) or higher, but I sorta did expect its first episode to rate better then a 1.2 (A18-49). Honestly, I expected it to rate somewhere between a 1.4 and 1.6. Even The Secret Circle wasn't quite as high as I expected, but at least I was a wee bit closer there, I expected between a 1.3 and a 1.5, and it did a 1.3.

And I'm not even going to be posting my actual numbers guesses here - I'm just going to say whether I think the show will be a hit or a miss (ratings wise). Cause actually trying to pick out numbers would take me awhile, and while I'm bored I'm not that bored.

So, once more with feeling - I am certainly not an expert at these things, and am only unprofessionally guessing.
For example again, and with the CW even my guesses without guessing numbers was still wrong, because I really believed Ringer would premiere bigger then The Secret Circle, though in the long run I except The Secret Circle to maintain its rating better then Ringer.
(That's an actual scary thought regarding Ringer, because it didn't premiere better then it did it really can't afford to lose what few viewers tuned in. If it can't stay at about a 1.0/1.1 then it's probably gonna be a one (season) and done show.)



psst - When I say no series premieres on this night, I mean there are no new series premiering, but there might be returning shows premiering on those nights.

Monday, September 19, 2011:

ABC:

No series premieres on this night for ABC.

CBS:

Two and a Half Men - Okay, this one isn't "new" but because of the Sheen thing I'm going to speculate. I believe it has the potential to premiere pretty big tonight, despite the Sheen Roast also airing tonight on Comedy Central, but I don't think it'll stay big. However, I do believe that even without Sheen the show will still settle into renewable ratings, but not be as big as it once was anymore.
(UPDATE: A18-49 - 10.7/25)

2 Broke Girls - I'm not sure, really, because I'm somewhat interested in this one my gut instinct is to say this one won't rate well. However, of all the comedys CBS has coming this season this one does look like the best of the lot, but who knows if others will see it the same way. Still I'll say decent premiere, but probably not a major hit.
(UPDATE: A18-49 - 7.1/16)

CW:

No series premiere on this night for the CW.

FOX:
No series premiere on this night for FOX.

NBC:

The Playboy Club - On this one I'm going against the conventional wisdom, I think it will at least premiere decently, but then probably drop off quickly. Most people think it won't even premiere well.
(UPDATE: A18-49 - 1.6/4)

Tuesday, September 20, 2011:

ABC:

No series premieres on this night for ABC.

CBS:

Unforgettable - Truth is I keep forgetting about this one, and I'm not seeing much buzz/interest, so it'll probably be a hit. Seriously, I'm only half joking, because many of CBS shows don't generate much buzz/interest and yet they rate well enough to go on for years. I'm less sure about this one, though, from the previews and everything it just doesn't... I don't know, so I'm gonna say not a hit but not a miss either.
(UPDATE: A18-49 - 2.9/8)

CW:

No series premiere on this night for the CW, because Ringer premiered last week.

FOX:

New Girl - It'll look like a hit at first, and probably settle in to acceptable ratings, so not a miss either.
(UPDATE: A18-49 - 4.8/12)

NBC:

No series premieres on this night for NBC.

Wednesday, September 21, 2011:

ABC:

Revenge - I think maybe a miss, though it might premiere to decent numbers, and could end up being not a hit but not a miss or could be another Happy Town.
(UPDATE: A18-49 - 3.3/9)

CBS:

No series premiere on this night for CBS.

CW:

No series premiere on this night for the CW, because H8R premiered last week.

FOX:

The X Factor - May start big like American Idol, but somehow I do see it being not as big in the end as AI, but still big enough to last for years and years and years... You get the idea.
(UPDATE: A18-49 - 4.4/12)

NBC:

I think the two new comedies on this night all ready had their season premieres.

Thursday, September 22, 2011:

ABC:

Charlie's Angels - Will at least premiere big, and could stay fairly big, but I'm not really expecting that. I figure we're looking at this seasons FlashForward with this one - big premiere, big drop-off.
(UPDATE: A18-49 - 2.1/6)

CBS:

Person of Interest - I'm going against conventional wisdom here, because this show is not exactly CBS fare, so I think a decent premiere with a quick fall off, but might at least do well enough to finish it's first season.
(UPDATE: A18-48 - 3.1/8)

CW:

No series premiere on this night for the CW, because The Secret Circle premiered last week.

FOX:

No series premiere on this night for FOX, because The X Factor premiered the night before.

NBC:

Whitney - I've heard real bad things about this one, but still expect it to premiere well, but could be this years Outsourced. So, decent premiere followed by a quick drop.
(UPDATE: A18-48 - 3.3/9)

Prime Suspect - Probably this seasons Chase. Will premiere well enough to make you think it's gonna stay around, but then quickly drop.
(UPDATE: A18-49 - 1.8/5)

Friday, September 23, 2011:

ABC:

No series premiere on this night for ABC.

CBS:

A Gifted Man - Could be the new Ghost Whisperer, or could flop like Chaos... This one is a tough one for me to call, because if the old GW audience is interested enough to tune in this could do fairly well, but if not then this'll quickly flop.
(UPDATE: Prelim rating: A18-49 - 1.4/5)

CW:

No series premiere on this night for the CW.

FOX:

No series premiere on this night for FOX.

NBC:

No series premiere on this night for NBC.

So, here's how it stacks up--

The following shows won't even get a full 22 episode season:

Whitney
(UPDATE: Looks like I was totally and completely wrong wrong wrong on this one!)

Prime Suspect
(UPDATE: Looks like I hit this one exactly on the nose.)

The following shows will be one and done (they'll get a full season, but no more):

The Playboy Club
(UPDATE: I was more then a little wrong on this one.)

Ringer (I do hate to list Ringer here, but it just didn't premiere as well as expected, but it could still (maybe) get a season two.)
(UPDATE: So far so good on this one, though this one might only get a full season because the CW simply has nothing else (but reruns) to air in the slot.)

Revenge
(UPDATE: So far so good, though I was a little wishy washy above, but that's because this is one of those shows that's hard to call. Viewers will either love it or hate it, but there's probably very little in-between, and very little shot of picking up new viewers (ratings) along the way. Still I obviously felt it would do well enough to at least score a full first season.)

H8R
(UPDATE: Starting to very seriously doubt that this one is getting a full first season.)

Free Agents
(UPDATE: As with H8R, I'm starting to very seriously doubt this one is getting a full first season.)

Charlie's Angels
(UPDATE: I was wrong - this started low, so if it falls even a little bit it'll most likely be gone before November sweeps.)

Person of Interest
(UPDATE: So far so good on this one.)

A Gifted Man (May do well enough to get a second season, I'm honestly iffy on this one.)
(UPDATE: I was right to be iffy on this one, because it looks like at best it's going to go the way Medium went last season, meaning it won't have a full 22 episode season.)

The following shows will get renewed for a second season:

2 Broke Girls
(UPDATE: So far so good with this one.)

Unforgettable (May not do well enough for a second season, I'm honestly iffy on this one.)
(UPDATE: So far so good with this one, I probably shouldn't have been iffy.)

New Girl
(UPDATE: So far so good with this one.)

The X Factor
(UPDATE: I totally called this one - a hit in its own right, but not a show that's going to crush the nights competition like American Idol.)

Up All Night
(UPDATE: So far so good, though I'm sure NBC wishes it was a little higher in the ratings.)

The Secret Circle
(UPDATE: Not exactly looking good for this one either anymore - a big (and unexpected) drop in its second week puts it on par with Ringer.)

Again, though these are very early predictions, and I'd be deeply deeply shocked if I had 'em all right. Really, it's better to not even attempt this until at least five episodes have actually aired, unless the first few episodes are really low rated, and even then sometimes you just never know what a network will do.

Oh, and yes, I realize this isn't a list of all the new shows coming this season, this is just a list for all the shows that are starting this week (or started last week). I basically just decided to lay out my guesses for once just so I can look back later and see how right/wrong I was.
 
 
 
 
 
 
Sometimes CW ratings are the opposite of what they are for other networks: They start off lower and then pick up after the first episode or two. So there might be hope for Ringer, we'll have to see. Particularly because CW allows for lower ratings as long as they are in their core demographic.

I kind of enjoyed Secret Circle, but the only new shows I'm really excited for are Terra Nova and Awake (which doesn't start until Winter). I'm going to give Charlie's Angels a try mostly because they moved Bones back an hour (stupid Fox, I liked my old Thursday schedule) so I have nothing to watch for that 8 slot and I'll be on ABC for Grey's anyway. I might try Revenge too because there is an actor in it that I like, and the plotline sounds interesting if they can make it work.

The premiss of Unforgettable sounds interesting, but I read a review of someone who watched the pilot, and it doesn't live up to its potential at all.

I'm really hoping that Playboy Club fails because it has all the sexism of the era without the actual commentary on that sexism that Mad Men has.
According to reports from the new CW head, they won't be focusing on their previous core demographic for shows anymore. That could spell real bad news for Gossip Girl, but perhaps even 90210.

But the main reason I'm not yet ready to bet on Ringer is because it's almost certainly the most expensive show on the CW (going by the talent names alone), so that means it probably has to be bigger then the other CW shows to even have a chance. Of course, I'm not completely willing (yet) to bet against it either, because as you said it could pick up, or could simply stay where it's at, and that would probably be enough.

Anyway, I'm eager for Awake, but not really excited. As for Terra Nova I fear it's gonna end up one of those over-rated shows, so I wouldn't say I'm eager.

As for The Playboy Club I'm not judging yet cause I haven't seen it (and may never see it, also, I've never seen Mad Men either, just not personally interested in shows from/set in that era), but I've gotten more then a little annoyed by all the pre-judging going on from other people who haven't seen it, so I'd kinda like to see it at least rate well enough to stay on for one season, but if it is as sexist as expected then it also wouldn't hurt my feelings if it died right out of the gate.

And, finally, as for Unforgettable I'm mostly not sure about its chances because I simply keep forgetting about it. Seriously, I'll see a promo and be like "what's that?" then "Oh, yeah," and that happens each time I see that promo for some reason I just can't remember it.